When I start to write this Craft Beer article, it has a sense of Déjà vu. It is a replay of 12 years ago, when I first started my coffee venture in China – a new and well popularized foreign consumer product line and its concept catching light in China.  No products are the same, and their market path would be different although one thing is so certain for a market as China, it will grow so fast with so much congested entrepreneurship, corporate’ interests and investment that it will reach a level of market irrationality in 5 years. For any ones interested of China’s market, the next three years will be craft beer’s golden age to establish a foothold before wind starts to blow.

Several things for anyone with interests in China’s craft beer market must comprehend before starting.

1.       Localization of a great American consumer product and concept in China is the whole business of itself.

2.       China tends to have a business cycle of 5 years for any new product or trend, from unknown to turbulent. Long term plan will not work here since it is not controlled by any business but by macro environment. It is predictable.

3.       Price and quality as part of natural market mechanism are valid and critical.

4.       Technology and know-how still have to be imported though the competition among foreigners will drag down the price fast for low tech products such as craft beer.

Price is a moment of truth. For a FMCG product, price is everything.

China is the world leading total beer consumption country, nearly double of American consumption. On the other hand, American craft beer sales reached 120 billions RMB and total sales is at 700 billions RMB in 2015 when China’s total sales is only 180 billions and just about world average on per capita beer consumption.

No product is the same. Coffee and wine in the past and craft beer in the near future all has their own path to the market. In comparison to wine and coffee, which take a decade and more to nurture, craft beer is getting into a ready market. Localization and next three years is all to set difference for the market players.